How Marin County commercial real estate has changed over 2 decades

To the casual observer the Marin County commercial real estate market has changed only subtly in 20 years. To those who look closely, the changes are profound.

Twenty years ago we had land, we built buildings. Very few buildings were added to inventory in Marin over the past 20 years. Few companies are able to grow to become enterprises.

Twenty years ago office space was more valuable than residential. And we saw homes, particularly urban Victorian houses, being converted to office. Today residential real estate is the more valuable, and office is being converted to residential uses.

Economically, rents have not moved that much, yet operating expenses are higher. Therefore, the principal driver of value has been capitalization-rate compression.

Same with interest rates.

Twenty years ago the commercial brokerage community had many more players, enough to have a golf tournament. And the North Bay Commercial Brokers met monthly to discuss issues and trends impacting the industry.

Today we barely work together at all and our ranks are probably half of what they were — and we’re getting old.

It would be great to see more curious young minds interested in shaping their community enter the profession.

Twenty years from now will be very different than today. Climate adaptation, resource allocation, droughts and water issues, state regulation of local land use, traffic issues, wildfires, inequality, homelessness, etc. are serious issues that are already impacting our built environment.

Hurry up, young minds: You have your work cut out for you.