Canadian Housing Market Outlook, Fall 2021

Canada’s housing market is expected to remain strong this fall despite the delta twist, say RE/MAX brokers and real estate agents

Young families are driving demand for single-family homes in cities across the country

  • According to RE/MAX brokers and agents, Canadian home market prices are expected to rise 5% for the remainder of 2021.
  • 27/30 of the major Canadian housing markets analyzed are seller’s markets, driven by a lack of supply and high demand.

Toronto, ON and Kelowna, BC, October 5, 2021 – Leading indicators from RE/MAX brokers and agents in the Canadian housing market point to steady activity for the remainder of 2021 RE/MAX Canada 2021 Real Estate Market Outlook Fall ReportRE/MAX brokers and agents predict that the median home selling price for all home types could increase 5 percent from now through the end of the year.

Single-family homes saw the largest price gains when comparing 2021* data to 2020, rising between 6.8 and 27.3 percent across 27 markets surveyed in the report. RE/MAX agents and brokers expect this trend to continue into the fall, fueled by strong demand from young families.

“As our brokers and agents are predicting, market activity is expected to remain stable during the fall, which is encouraging despite the ongoing challenges posed by the Delta variant,” said Christopher Alexander, senior vice president, RE/MAX Canada. “This is particularly relevant as Canada’s housing markets are often a good indicator of the country’s economic activity, and with the Bank of Canada forecasting economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2022, a sharply falling housing market is a good sign that.” things might start to return to a more natural rhythm.”

Overview of the Canadian regional housing market

WESTERN CANADA

High home prices, spurred by low supply and high demand, have presented challenges for many homebuyers across Canada, particularly in cities like Toronto and Vancouver. However, there are still affordable options for homebuyers considering alternative markets thanks to their continued ability to work remotely. RE/MAX agents have reported this trend in Edmonton and Calgary, where buyers are benefiting from increased spending power thanks to local housing affordability combined with lower interest rates. RE/MAX brokers and agents expect this trend to continue through the end of 2021.

Comparing year-over-year (YoY) average selling prices of single-family homes, condos, and townhouses, Nanaimo, Victoria, and Vancouver in British Columbia saw significant price growth at 23 percent, 19.1 percent, and 16.4 percent, respectively. Nanaimo also experienced one of the largest price increases in its condo and townhome segments relative to other regions of Western Canada, with average condo prices currently at $343,713 (a 17.6 percent year-over-year increase) and townhome prices at $492,536 (a increase of 21.9). percentage increase year-on-year). In Calgary and Regina, the fall outlook is relatively flat, with prices set to remain flat in Calgary and up 1 percent in Regina. Edmonton, Saskatoon, Vancouver, Victoria, Winnipeg and Nanaimo are expected to gain between four and nine percent by the end of the year, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents.

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ONTARIO

Unsurprisingly, Ontario has seen some of the highest average single-family home price increases in the country, with the majority of regions (13 out of 16) registering year-on-year increases of between 20 and 35.5 percent. Outlier markets with price increases below 20 percent include Toronto (+14.6 percent), Thunder Bay (+17.1 percent) and Mississauga (+19.7 percent).

The condominium and townhome segment has also performed well in all of these regions, with smaller and more suburban markets such as Kitchener, North Bay, London, Peterborough and Southern Georgian Bay posting higher year-over-year increases. Estimated price prospects for the remainder of the year range from a two percent price decline in North Bay to price increases of between two and 15 percent in the other regions.

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ATLANTIC CANADA

Atlantic Canada housing market activity remained sustained year-on-year, with Halifax and Moncton posting significant price increases across all property types. Single-family homes in Halifax rose 24.3 percent year-over-year from $402,484 to $500,147. Meanwhile, freestanding Moncton prices rose 21.2 percent year-on-year from $233,676 to $282,886. The condominium and townhome segments in Halifax, Saint John and Moncton all saw price increases ranging from 12.5% ​​to 48.9% year over year.

Home prices in St. John’s, NFLD, were more moderate, with single-family homes up 8.4 percent year-over-year (from $343,070 in 2020 to $371,970 in 2021) and townhomes up 2.8 percent year-on-year from $247,432 in 2020 to $254,462 in 2021. Condos were the only real estate segment to see a 1.9 percent year-on-year decrease in median price from $261,425 in 2020 to $256,415 in 2021. However, sales in the region have been buoyant across all property types, with single-family home sales increasing 60.4 percent year-over-year, condo sales were up 75.7 percent and townhouse sales were up 94.1 percent.

Moncton in particular is expected to remain strong, with one of the highest price outlooks for the remainder of 2021 between 12 and 15 percent. Saint John is expected to see more moderate price growth, ranging from 1% to 3% for all property types, while Halifax could see a 6% increase in average selling prices for the remainder of the year. In St. John’s, single-family home prices are expected to rise 1 percent through the end of 2021, while condo and townhouse prices are expected to remain stable.

“Housing activity has remained strong throughout the pandemic, so it’s not surprising that the outlook remains bullish for the remainder of the year, which is great for homeowners and their equity but challenging for first-time home buyers, which have been.” not commercially available,” said Elton Ash, executive vice president, RE/MAX Canada. “We must continue to educate Canadians from a practical, real-world standpoint. What is currently affecting the Canadian housing market? Low interest rates, economic stimulus, higher homebuyer budgets, higher savings rates, homeowners too afraid to sell and a shortage of new builds. These factors have created the current market conditions.”

Alexander adds: “The Canadian housing market has historically provided homeowners with great long-term returns and solid financial security, but there is no doubt that the rapid price increases we have seen of late is a cause for concern. However, there is no reason to panic. The data shows that single-family home price increases are flattening out in some urban centers, but prices continue to rise in many smaller towns and communities that were once havens of affordability. Real estate has been a boon to Canada’s economy during and before the pandemic. We believe in the long-term health of Canada’s housing market, but to protect it we must recognize and address the housing shortage. Our current government needs to stop using patches and get to the root of the problem.”

About the RE/MAX Fall 2021 Housing Market Outlook

The 2021 RE/MAX Fall Housing Market Outlook Report includes data and insights from RE/MAX agents. RE/MAX brokers and agents are interviewed about market activity and local developments. Regional summaries with additional broker insights can be found at REMAX.ca. The Fall Outlook is based on forecasts provided by RE/MAX brokers and agents. The overall outlook is based on the average of all regions examined, weighted by the number of transactions in each region.

* The average sales prices for residential properties in 2020 refer to the entire year, 2021 to the period from January 2021 to August 31, 2021.