Housing market predictions paint a mixed picture for the rest of 2020
July was a banner month for property prices and sales, but uncertainty about future changes in property policy could dampen future momentum, according to the Radian Group.
“While not included in the current data, recent housing policy changes by the White House, Congress, and government sponsored corporations related to future stimulus and forbearance regulations, as well as other unknowns related to COVID-19, could affect the future Housing conditions weigh on months, “said Steve Gaenzler, senior vice president of data and analytics at Radian.
The Radian Home Price Index rose 6.8% year-on-year in July versus June. Between August 2019 and July it rose by 8.1%.
The nationwide average price for home ownership was $ 258,206 in July, according to Radian’s subsidiary Red Bell Real Estate.
On the supply side, the number of listings for sale was 15% below the average monthly number over the past five years and nearly 27% below the monthly maximum of listings over the same period, Radian reported. Properties were on the market an average of 114 days, the shortest stay in over a decade.
Although interest rates remained at record lows, the percentage of purchases of transactions has increased in recent months. Ellie Mae reported that purchases, which accounted for 46% of mortgage loans, closed the lending system processed in July, down from a low of 35% in April and May.
Remax, which covers 53 markets, saw home sales jump 8.7% year over year in July.
“The sharp surge in home sales in July – the best month for home sales in the history of our report – is further evidence of the remarkable recovery in housing construction amid the pandemic,” said Adam Contos, CEO of Remax Holdings, in a press release. “Home sales tend to be at their peak in May or June, but this year there is an overlap between the spring and summer markets. And as strong as July was, sales might have been higher had it not been for inventories.” would have been so close. “
The inventory was only 1.7 months. This is the lowest in the 12 years Remax has tracked this data. This corresponds to a decrease of 30.1% compared to July 2019.
More optimistic about the future property market, Contos says, “So far, buyers have shown they are willing to pay steadily rising prices, so the months ahead could be very active, especially as more homeowners decide to get in and sell. “
According to data from Remax, the average sales price in July was $ 285,000, up 8.6% year over year.
Redfin tracked a slightly different timeframe than Radian or Remax, seeing a 10% year-over-year increase in median retail price for the four-week period ending Aug. 9.
This caused average home sales prices to hit an all-time high of $ 314,000, Redfin said. In a monthly comparison, prices rose by 3.5%; in the same period in 2019 they fell by 1.7%.
The average price-performance ratio rose to a new record high of 99.1% after 98.4% in the same period of the previous year. From June it rose by 0.3 percentage points. Typically this time of year, the sale-to-list ratio drops, Redfin said, noting that it is down 0.1 percentage points in 2019 and 0.2 percentage points in 2018.
“Right now you have a number of people who are highly motivated to buy – they have the money and they have the want, and they are not afraid of competition,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist, in a press release. “But there are an even larger number of homeowners who are very comfortable there and don’t want to rock the boat. Some just don’t want to deal with the hassle of moving around during a pandemic and facing the competition when buying.” “
Ironically, GSE’s negative market fee on refinancing could fix the inventory shortage, Redfin said. It has been posited that homeowners looking to benefit from low mortgage rates would list their current property and look for a new one.
“Of course, this could also lead to higher demand for homes when these sellers buy again. Therefore, new listings and home sales can typically increase after the rule goes into effect,” said Redfin.