The past five-year earnings decline for Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust (HKG:808) likely explains shareholders long-term losses

It’s nice to see the Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust (HKG:808) share price up 11% in a week. The negative return of 38% over five years does not impress. But on the bright side, that’s better than the market return of 18%.

On a more encouraging note the company has added HK$315m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let’s see if we can determine what’s driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

Check out our latest analysis for Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it’s counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

We note that the dividend has fallen in the last five years, so that may have contributed to the share price decline. The revenue decline of around 0.1% would not have helped the stock price. So the the weak dividend and revenue data could well help explain the soft share price.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SEHK:808 Earnings and Revenue Growth October 5th 2022

We know that Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust, it has a TSR of -14% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there’s no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust shareholders are down 28% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that’s worse than the broader market decline of 26%. Having said that, it’s inevitable that some stocks will be oversold in a falling market. The key is to keep your eyes on the fundamental developments. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualized loss of 3% over the last half decade. We realize that Baron Rothschild has said investors should “buy when there is blood on the streets”, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 2 warning signs for Prosperity Real Estate Investment Trust (of which 1 doesn’t sit too well with us!) you should know about.

If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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